According to a NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released Sunday morning, Clinton holds a 48% to 45% lead over Sanders among likely caucus-goers, a smaller lead than other polls have shown her with for months in the Hawkeye State. And Sanders is ahead, 50% to 46%, among likely New Hampshire primary voters, maintaining his edge in what’s long looked like the early-voting state in which the Vermont senator has the best shot of defeating Clinton. The polls also show that Sanders performs better in head-to-head matchups with Republicans Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio than Clinton does, giving his campaign ammunition to rebut Clinton’s argument that she is more electable in a general election. The numbers raise the possibility that Clinton, despite her national front-runner status, could lose one or both of the first two states to vote in the nominating process. Clinton herself has noted the damage such losses can do, telling supporters in a fundraising email Saturday, designed in part to instill a sense of urgency in Clinton’s supporters, that losing New Hampshire “could be a sharp blow to all the work we’ve done.”
On the Republican side, Texas Senator Ted Cruz remains the front-runner in Iowa, but it’s a narrow lead, at 28% to Donald Trump’s 24%. The two are trailed by Florida Senator Marco Rubio at 13% and Ben Carson at 11%, with no other candidates topping 5%. In New Hampshire, Trump leads with 30% support, more than double any other candidate’s backing. In second is Rubio at 14%. He’s followed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 12%, Cruz at 10%, and Ohio Governor John Kasich and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 9% each.